It’s May 15, 2018. I take my leftovers of seared tuna, quinoa, and Brussel sprouts out to the office deck. I usually share this time with my business partner, Randy, but today, he’s at lunch with his wife to celebrate their anniversary.
Moments after I sit down, a lady walks out of the office building that sits just to the left of my massive Pikes Peak view. She gets into her truck, and as I wait for the engine to spark to life, she just sits there. Then the telltale puff of smoke, and I notice the cigarette in her hand. She’s taking her lunch break in the escape of her car and cooling her nerves with a toke. I soon see her drinking something, looks like a soda can.
Less than five minutes later, another lady emerges from the same door. Except she is clothed in colorful lycra, headphones in her ears, and running shoes on as she breaks into a trot. With the Mountain vista behind her, it could easily be an advertisement for active wear.
Now let me pause here. I don’t know these ladies. The smoker could be a comparable Mother Theresa of a soul, and the runner could be an axe murderer. Sure, it’s possible. But I’ll put it in your shoes. If it was your money on the line to cover their possible health risks, who would you bet on?
Predicting risk is just that, a calculated prediction. If I get speeding tickets in my car, my monthly auto coverage costs will increase. I might have the driving skills of Mario Andretti, but it doesn’t matter; I’m judged a risk if I speed. Those who don’t, benefit with lower costs.
Predictive analytics. Simple math.